Three years of general malaise and a disastrous late summer and fall have set up the conditions for a perfect storm to sweep Barack Obama out of the White House in a humiliating loss:
The map above is an alternative analysis of the electoral vote standing for this presidential race done for QstarNews.com by the author of this article. The methodology for this particular map is quite simple. For each state, the polling data listed for that state at Real Clear Politics is viewed, and when obviously skewed media polls are removed, the remaining credible polls are averaged. If that average shows Obama at 50.1 percent or better, that state is shaded blue for Obama. Any result below that for Obama, and the state is shaded red for Romney. This reflects just about all the undecided vote going to Romney by the time voters cast their ballots in the actual election.
How realistic is is to think that Romney would collect the vast majority of undecided voters? I’m not sure.
I’ve read the opinions of several pundits—I can’t recall who offhand—that don’t really believe there are undecided voters. There are a small number that can be persuaded, and a much larger number that doesn’t want to make a verbal commitment to candidate they intend to vote for because they don’t want public blame if their decision blows up in their faces.
This model suggests that most Americans who aren’t open about who they are supporting aren’t neutral, and they’re going to hit back hard against Obama in November. For the sake of our Republic, I hope that is correct.