Bob Owens

The saddest truth in politics is that people get the leaders they deserve

Look on my mom jeans, ye Mighty, and despair! Not an undecided vote remains

Written By: Bob - Sep• 14•12

He built that: This projection suggests a Romney blowout of Obama in November.

Three years of general malaise and a disastrous late summer and fall have set up the conditions for a perfect storm to sweep Barack Obama out of the White House in a humiliating loss:

The map above is an alternative analysis of the electoral vote standing for this presidential race done for by the author of this article. The methodology for this particular map is quite simple. For each state, the polling data listed for that state at Real Clear Politics is viewed, and when obviously skewed media polls are removed, the remaining credible polls are averaged. If that average shows Obama at 50.1 percent or better, that state is shaded blue for Obama. Any result below that for Obama, and the state is shaded red for Romney. This reflects just about all the undecided vote going to Romney by the time voters cast their ballots in the actual election.

How realistic is is to think that Romney would collect the vast majority of undecided voters? I’m not sure.

I’ve read the opinions of several pundits—I can’t recall who offhand—that don’t really believe there are undecided voters. There are a small number that can be persuaded, and a much larger number that doesn’t want to make a verbal commitment to candidate they intend to vote for because they don’t want public blame if their decision blows up in their faces.

This model suggests that most Americans who aren’t open about who they are supporting aren’t neutral, and they’re going to hit back hard against Obama in November. For the sake of our Republic, I hope that is correct.

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  1. John Jacobs says:

    Hey CY, I think you’re gonna be disappointed here. Elections are popularity contests as much as anything and hardly anyone likes Romney, even the people who plan on voting for him. Despite Obama’s utter failure in every in every area he still talks a mean game and I think it’s enough to dupe at least 50% +1 of the populace.

    Hope I’m wrong.

    • Micha Elyi says:

      Can’t think of any US presidential election in which “hardly anyone likes” the candidate who became the eventual winner, eh?

      I’ll whisper a clue: Nixon, 1972. 49-state win.

      • Rick Caird says:

        Besides, who is Jacobs to claim “hardly anyone likes Romney”. That seems to be a feeble attempt to project Jacobs’ feelings onto the other 300 million citizens.

  2. louielouie says:

    considering the populace he’ll be duping, i’d say it’s a safe bet you can reverse those E/C numbers.
    just at a glance i count 85 i don’t agree with.

  3. momo says:

    This is a laugh.
    There is no way on God’s Green earth that Oregon is anything but a Strong Obama state (not even leaning).
    In Oregon it is perfectly normal (and considered proper & just) to have your car keyed for having an right-wing (racist bigot) bumper sticker, or to be ostracized and lose friends for voicing a right-wing view.
    In Oregon Hatred (towards the right and the white) is considered a virtue. The more Politically Correct Hate you have and display the better a person you are.
    I will never forget going to a dinner party here and watching the host’s 7 year old daughter walking around and calling Sarah Palin the C-word. And having the guests pat her head and tell her what a bright intelligent girl she was for doing that and then complimenting the parents on raising their child “right”.
    Any poll or scenario that has Oregon anything but deepest Blue is flat out wrong. I am sorry. It would be nice. But it isn’t reality.

    • PlainBill says:

      That’s only true in a couple of counties, and even within those counties, only a couple of cities.

      Most of Oregon is actually very conservative – but consistently outvoted by the California imports that live in Portland, Salem and Eugene.

      I’ve lived here since 1980, and have lived in the ‘other’ Oregon. It’s the nuts and fruits that moved here not even being able to make it in California that give Oregon it’s bad blue rep.

    • Dart says:

      Both my parents live in Oregon and haven’t voted in the last four presidential elections. This year they have made me vow to come take them to the polls to vote for Romney. I’ll do it happily.

    • jb says:

      This is precisely why Romney may win in Oregon, “Oregon Hatred” are minority comprised of overbearing pompous asses who are not liked by the majority. The silent majority will strike back in the privacy of the voting booth.

  4. Carl Pham says:

    I like Romney. Always have. And I have plenty of company. That’s, you know, why the guy won the Republican primary easily, and why he polls so well even against The First Black President(TM), with this supposedly massive “likeability” factor.

    Maybe John Jacobs is one of those sleazy concern trolls that Team Obama have been deploying all over the Internet lately.

  5. Anna says:

    Am on a road trip with my husband. We drove from California (including Sacramento), through Nevada, Utah (Moab), Colorado (Denver area) and are now in Wyoming. Husband and I have made it a game to spot an Obama bumper sticker. We have not seen one. At all. And not for lack of trying. We looked in parking lots when we go out to eat, at the hotels, the freeways. We’ve seen some Romney stickers, and several Romney banners along I-70 in Colorado. We’ve even seen a pro-life bumper sticker just outside Denver. But it seems like for the most part, people haven’t been expressing their politics through their bumper stickers as much as in 2008. Even my hometown in northern Cali seems a lot quieter than it was four years ago. (Maybe this time they won’t be stealing my yard signs like they did in ’08 (I lost several yard signs to thieves then).)

    I don’t know, maybe they’re just late putting them on this year. But there doesn’t seem to be as much enthusiasm for HopeyChangey this time around. At least not in my neck of the woods.

    • The problem with using bumper stickers as anecdotal evidence is that, at least in blue counties of blue states (I livein LA County), you’d have to be nuts to put a pro-Romney or antiu-Obama sticker on your car – unless yoiu want a brick through the window, a round through your head, or a rock into your kid’s head or your car keyed.

      The Party of Tolerance, don’t ya know…

      At the same time, this could mean sampling bumper stickers skews waaaaay left.

      • Dart says:

        Sad isn’t it. Still I’m putting up a massive Romney lawn sign (and training a security camera on it).

      • Frank says:

        Well, exactly. I’ve been keeping count here in southern NH. Four years ago, Obama bumper stickers were everywhere. So far this cycle, I’ve seen TWO (and one of those was from 2008). And one Romney sticker- a surprise- you wouldn’t expect any… who WANTS their car keyed?

        Driving to work yesterday, I spotted a 4th Romney lawn sign. WOW! FOUR Romney signs. ZERO Obama signs.

        And this in a state which even Karl Rove colors light blue.

        Obama is history.

      • Sandy Daze says:

        I don’t see a problem in using bumperstickers as anecdotal evidence, a proxy as it were, for a reflection of general support for/against a candidate.

        In my neck of the woods, the mid-Atlantic, I am seeing very/VERY few signs of support for the incumbent, Chair-in-Chief.
        During the course of the summer I saw few signs of support for Mr Romney, although now that the RNC is finished, I am seeing both bumperstickers and yard signs. Scientific–?–no. But, as I read the comments to arious posts here and elsewhere, the story is the same, i.e. increasing signs of support for Mr Romney (or enthusiasm to defeat the CinC), and no corresponding signs of increase of support for the CinC.

        Mr Romney and the anti-0 forces own the enthusiasm. we need to own the vote and to all, please get out and volunteer at your local anti-0 office.

    • Phil says:

      I live near Sacramento and drive my daughters to into Sacramento each weekday. Four years ago, the 25-mile drive was awash in Obama/Biden 08 bumper stickers. After all, that drive in shares the road with mostly state workers, CSUS students, and faculty, etc.

      Today, driving my middle daughter on the same route, not one. Not a single bumper sticker to be seen. I do think this is significant. It’s one thing to be embarrassed or secret about your vote. It’s another to totally disavow your prior vote when you are clearly among like-thinkers and friendly audience.

  6. JWnTX says:

    I’ve been predicting Obama would win only 13 states for 3 months now. I don’t see any but the bluest of blue states going for him.

  7. Keating Willcox says:

    Dick Morris suggests that independents break for the new guy, so this map is correct.

  8. Thomas Hazlewood says:

    It’s not always about popularity. Carter and Nixon were neither popular. The alternatives, att, seemed worse. In fact, the NOW more or less popular JFK would have lost to Nixon were it not for Chicago politics stealing that city and state.

  9. jocon307 says:

    I most certainly hope and pray that you are right.

    This election isn’t about Mitt Romney anymore, it’s about Obama and his handmaidens in the Media.

    These people must be stripped of power in November.

  10. peter jackson says:

    Unless unemployment plummets to 6.5% and gas is $2.50 a gallon by November, Obama is dead meat almost everywhere.

  11. Frank says:

    Well, here in south NH where I have lived for years, and which most polls count as “tossup” or “leaning Obama,” I call: BS.

    Four years ago, every 10th car sported an Obama/Biden bumper sticker, and their lawn signs were everywhere. And I still have the Obama campaign speech DVD a couple of his door-to-door tools gave me (made me feel like royalty… almost).

    Today? Heh. I drove to work today, counting the lawn signs: Romney: 4, Obama: 0. And this in a state which even Karl Rove colors blue.

    What about bumper stickers? Obama: 2 (one of them from 2008); Romney: 1 (a surprise– who wants their car to be keyed?)

    Intrade, for once, has it wrong. Romney wins in a landslide.

  12. wGraves says:

    It’s the Dick Morris Hypothesis: The incumbent doesn’t normally get much of the undecided vote, because of being a known quantity. Romney could still blow it in the debates, though. It’s his to lose.

  13. elkh1 says:

    The undecided cannot decide whether to vote Romney or stay home. If they are comfortable with Obama, they would have decided already.

  14. Boris_Badenoff says:

    Typically with an incumbent President, the late-deciders break 2-1 for the challenger. The only exception was 2004, when it was reversed.

    So the map is probably optimistic to the extent it awards states to Romney based on all the undecideds breaking for him, but it’s within the realm of possibility. Carter led Reagan by 8% in October but lost by a similar margin.

    • Eric H. Leake says:

      2004 was not an exception, the polling was most likely off or people were afraid to declare openly for Bush given how much the left hates him.

  15. Tom in SFCA says:

    I disagree regarding Oregon, but think Romney could get the rest that you show for him.

  16. john lynch says:

    If you remove the polls you don’t like I guess you can show anything you want.

  17. Kris in sw PA says:

    How PA ends up will depend less on how the so-called undecideds break and much more on how much fraud – in favor of Obama, of course – is permitted in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The squabble over voter ID is especially intense here for that reason.

  18. garfish says:

    Damn! I was hoping to rent that house BeJeses bought in Hawaii.

  19. Rich Vail says:

    …from your mouth to G-d’s ears…we can only hope you’re correct. Now, if it’s not too late to undo all the damage the Democratic Party has done (with the conivance of the Congressional GOP Leadership–after all they’ve gone along to get along for so long, their finger prints are all over the crime scene as well) over the past 70 years…

  20. This kind of follows the Amazon Election Heat Map which tracks purchases of “blue” and “red” political books by state.

  21. Teacher in Tejsas says:

    Morris’s hypothesis is backed by facts. He researched every presidential election back to 1964 and found that undecideds break for the challenger at an 80-90% rate, with one exception. W Bush barely won late breakers 51-49 or so. Even in total blowout years (64, 72, 84) a vast majority broke against the incumbent.

  22. Teacher in Tejsas says:

    My prediction:

    Romney squeaker: He starts with 179 (McCain plus six redistricting votes); he takes Florida, North Carolina and Virginia giving him 235. He wins Ohio, Wisconsin and probably three or four other purple states (IA, NM, NV, PA, NH)

    Romney comfortable win: The above, plus he runs the table in the upper midwest Add Michigan and Minnesota)

    Romney blowout: The above plus three or four “Wow, didn’t see that coming” states (MA, OR, IL, MD, DE, CT, ME)

    No way O gets less than 100 EVS (CA, NY, HI, WS, DC, VT, RI)

  23. George B says:

    I’d put the threshold for Obama to win a state lower than 50.1%. About 49% based on the case of the 2004 Washington gubernatorial election and Christine Gregoire’s 48.873% win after multiple recounts. Don’t you know that telephone surveys under-sample the felon, demented, and dead person vote. If it’s very close, the other side will try to score a win the Chicago way.

    Today I’m going to buy a Romney Ryan t-shirt to wear while exercising. Already “like” Romney on Facebook and none of my left leaning friends de-friended me. My car is old enough that I might even risk a bumper sticker.

    The Babe Theory of Political Movements says Obama is toast if images of attractive young women showing their support for the challenger start to break through. That would trigger the preference cascade toward Romney!

  24. peggy coffey says:

    I have also used the bumpersticker theory here in Ohio. I live in the bluest part of
    the state and have seen 4 O stickers and two of those were 08. The other two were
    Very strange because they had the O sticker on one side and a pro-life sticker on
    the other side. I have a Romney sticker on my car and have been asked by quite a few people where they could get one.

  25. Unclefred says:

    Drove by a Romney/Ryan lawn sign in NH yesterday. Sitting next to it was an empty chair. Clint probably moved 1% or 2% of the “undecideds” all by himself.