Prognosticating the outcome of a Presidential election by inferring results from the very first round of absentee ballot information culled only by party affiliation that provides only what percentage of each party requested early ballots and who turned them in, is likely the most useless waste of time in political prognosticating possible.
Candidates and campaigns have plenty of time remaining to breakout or implode, and current events on the national and international stage can and do change elections.
That allowed, looking at early voting data gives at least hints about the way the electorate may be leaning at any given moment, and when looked at in that context, Barack Obama is getting his ass handed to him in North Carolina, a state that narrowly went to Obama in 2008.
In 2008, 61% of ballots were cast in early voting, and Democrats hammered Republicans, with a 51.4% to 30.2% advantage. Despite these early voting successes, Obama only managed an eventual squeaker of a win in the Old North State, as election day voting was (and is) dominated by Republicans.
In 2012, the figures have radically reversed on first look, with Dem numbers dropping from 51.4% to a measly 33.9%, and the Republicans jumping from 30.2% to 46.8%. Considering the traditional Democrat advantage in early voting, these early figures, while still preliminary and functionally more ethereal than a Will-o’-the-wisp, are stunning.
If these are indicators of the general public mood, it suggests that despite the best efforts of the Obama campaign and the media, they have failed to build enthusiasm among their base. The sort of fear-mongering we saw just a few short weeks ago in Charlotte’s “Godless Convention” fell upon deaf ears or even repulsed Democratic voters (especially African-American Christians), who are not thrilled about the opportunity to vote for Barack Obama a second time.
Republicans, however, seem very motivated to throw Barack Obama out of the White House. I live in North Carolina just outside the state capitol, and see very motivated conservative voters of every color who are tired of the economic failure, “big brother” intrusiveness, and social radicalism of the Democratic Party.
Liberalism is far from dead in the Tarheel state, but even the most delusional leftist here has been delivered a sobering message by the continual, consistent failure of this President, and they aren’t going to hitch their hopes on a failed President that could cripple the party for decades to come if he’s reelected. They’d rather be apathetic and stay home in November. They’re much better suited to be scolds than scolded, and they view Romney as the lesser of two evils.
While we’re more than a month out from the election, it seems all but certain that Barack Obama has irreversibly lost North Carolina by s significant amount. What remains to be seen is if the popular vote in favor of Mitt Romney is nearer to 60-percent of the vote than 50-percent in what could shape up to be an electoral landslide for “Moderate Mitt.”