Romney experienced a powerful surge after the first debate, picked up 1-2 points after the second debate (so far), and will likely pick up a further 1-2 gain after the third debate, which mirrors the style of the first debate in which Romney destroyed Obama.
We can expect an “erosion effect” to seep in as well, where low information
voters finally begin paying attention to politics in the last few days of the election. They will be disillusioned with Obama’s failed foreign and domestic policies, the continuing scandals and revelation that seem to be erupting against the President on a near daily basis now. I suggest an additional point slips away from the President here.
Taking all that into account, I had a little fun last night, looking at the latest polling averages for the swing states in the Real Clear Politics electoral college maps, and gave the swing states where Obama had a 3.5-point advantage Obama, and those states where the lead was smaller to Romney, as trending suggests he will overcome Obama.
For ease of use, I used the interactive map at 270 to Win to keep track of the score.
Our starting point is BO 201 EV | MR 191 EV
Romney is ahead in Florida (29 EV) with a +2.6 advantage. BO 201 | MR 220
Romney is ahead in North Carolina (15 EV) with +5.6 advantage. BO 201 | MR 235
The race in Virginia (13 EV) is tied, but trending solidly toward Romney. BO 201 | MR 248
Romney is ahead in New Hampshire (4 EV) with a +1.0 advantage. BO 201 | MR 252
Obama has a +5.0 in Pennsylvania (20EV). Romney could win, but for now, Obama. BO 221 | MR 252
Obama is currently at +2.4 in Ohio, which he cannot sustain. BO 201 | MR 270 and the Presidency
The remaining states are just margin of victory.
Obama has a +5.0 in Michigan (16 EV) that he will likely hold. BO 237 | MR270
Obama has a +2.8 in Wisconsin (10 EV) that will likely collapse. BO 237 | MR 280
Obama has a +3.3 in Iowa (6 EV) that will likely collapse. BO 237 | MR 286
Romney is already up +0.2 in Colorado (9 EV) and can pull away. BO 237 | MR 295
Obama has a +3.0 in Nevada (6 EV) that he cannot sustain. BO 201 | MR 301